The Phoney War 2.0: Warmer than the Cold War ever was.

I’m going to do it anyway, I’m going to write it anyway, because ignoring it doesn’t help. So here we go:

It’s a term we rarely hear, but one that seems all the more relevant in our current time: The Phoney War. The period at the start of World War II when the West was formally at war with Nazi Germany after the invasion of Poland, but there was barely any action on the Western Front. A time of uneasy silence, where people hoped for a diplomatic solution, while the threat constantly grew. As I reread the history books on this period, a chilling thought creeps up on me: are we not living in such a Phoney War again?

The Phoney War is taking place in our consultation rooms

Formally, “the West” is not at war with Russia, nor is Russia at war with “the West”. Governments emphasize that we are not seeking direct confrontation, that “our” soldiers are not fighting on the front line. This is the official narrative: we are observers providing humanitarian and material aid.

But the reality, from our professional perspective, is much more direct, complex, and terrifying. In our work, pastoral care, therapy, counseling, whether in the Netherlands, Germany, Poland, or elsewhere, we see daily the undeniable evidence of this war. The evidence of the Ukrainian war is not limited to video footage on the news; it sits across from us in the chair. And note, those are not only the Ukrainians we speak to in this setting, but we also speak to Russians and Belarusians. All of them are in the same boat, and all of them are struggling with this misery. We see the victims of that war, people who have fled their homes and livelihoods, carrying war traumas. Women, men, and children who carry with them the sounds of artillery, the smell of fire, the panic of flight, and the loss of loved ones. People who fled their country because they would rather not fight against their neighbors. Their fear, their insomnia, their dissociation: this is not an abstract conflict far away. This is the raw, human toll, daily in our consultation room.

I cannot see this Phoney War as a geopolitical theory, but as the daily, devastating reality. We treat the psychologically wounded of a war we officially ‘are not part of.’ Wherever they come from, Russia, Belarus, or Ukraine, all are victims of yet another political game that nobody wanted. This is the most uncomfortable truth of our modern Phoney War: the physical border may be intact, but the psychological and human borders have long been crossed. The war has reached us, not with tanks, but with tens of thousands of traumatized people now seeking a safe haven in our societies. And those tanks… we hope they don’t come this far, but we are afraid they might.

Warmer Than the Cold War Ever Was

This lack of a clear designation brings me to another historical comparison: the Cold War (c. 1947–1991). Back then, we did call the threat a ‘war’, despite it being a conflict of ideologies, characterized by espionage, arms race, and proxy conflicts far outside Europe. The crucial factor was that NATO and the Warsaw Pact did not directly engage each other; the threat kept it ‘cold’.

And what do we have now? A situation that we officially call ‘nothing’, but which is many times ‘warmer’ than the Cold War ever was. This is the paradox of our time: a conflict we don’t want to call Cold War 2.0, but that combines the risks and intensity of both. What we are experiencing now is a Warm Phoney War, a “conflict” in which we are formally not fighting, but which is extremely hot and direct in its effect on our societies and the people we treat.

The Big Question: The Trap of Versailles

All of this leads to the most uncomfortable question for the future: are we learning from the biggest mistake of the 20th century?

World War II was the effect of not cleanly concluding World War I. The Treaty of Versailles was a punitive peace: Germany was ‘cornered’ by unaffordable reparations and military restrictions. That cocktail of economic misery and national resentment created a perfect breeding ground for extremist ideologies.

When we now look at the actions of the West (sanctions, isolation, legal steps) against Russia, the parallel is clear. Russia is being cornered in a similar, albeit reversed, manner in response to its chosen aggression. The pitfall here is to create a peace that lays the foundation for the next war.

The Great Mistake: Red Lines Ignored

Besides the failure of the 1919 peace, there is another warning from the thirties that we must not ignore: the Policy of Appeasement.

The most chilling historical parallel lies in ignoring the clear signals and ‘red lines’ of a major power. Between 1936 and 1939, the West ignored the warnings that stemmed from Hitler’s aggressive steps (Rhineland, Sudetenland), hoping to preserve peace. This resulted in a total war.

Now we see a similar dynamic: over the past decades, Russia has repeatedly warned that the expansion of NATO and the EU eastward, particularly toward Ukraine, was a ‘red line’. The West chose to ignore these warnings, based on the legitimate principle that sovereign nations are free to choose their own alliances.

The mistake lies in the dangerous common denominator: the failure to correctly assess and respond to the strategic or political intentions of a major power leads to an explosion of conflict. In the thirties, ignoring the warnings led to World War II; now it has led to the actual war in Ukraine and our Warm Phoney War.

The Escalation Under the Radar

Just like in 1939, when France and the UK declared war, but action was delayed, we now see a similar dynamic: we support Ukraine with billions in weapons and financial resources. Without this support, Ukraine would not survive. This is massive, indispensable support that de facto makes us a party to this conflict. But we don’t call it a war. We call it ‘support’, ‘aid’, ‘solidarity’. A euphemism for an involvement that goes deeper than we want to admit. Meanwhile, the escalation is already happening, but under the radar:

Sabotage and Hybrid Warfare: Railway lines in Poland have been sabotaged. Drone incidents, and the threat of cyberattacks on critical infrastructure in the EU, create an icy tension. These are not incidents; these are acts of war, packaged in the gray area of ‘hybrid warfare’.
The use of Western weapons against Russia: the boundary has recently been crossed further. The United States and several European countries have authorized Ukraine to attack military targets on Russian territory near the frontline with the supplied Western weapons (such as HIMARS missiles or similar systems). Although this is primarily aimed at military positions and troop concentrations, these weapons are also being used to destroy air defense batteries (such as S300/400 systems, for example near Belgorod) and other military infrastructure. The threat that these weapons will be deployed against broader logistical and energy networks in Russia is real, and the US is even planning to give intelligence to Kyiv about possible attacks on oil refineries and power plants in Russia. This brings us to an even hotter point of direct involvement.
Arms Race in the Calm: While we are formally neutral, our industry and our politics are completely focused on the war. Just like the Allies in 1939–1940 (when they were trying to massively build up materiel), we are now busy ramping up arms production and adjusting defense budgets.

We are afraid of direct, ‘hot’ confrontation, and rightly so. The threat of nuclear escalation is real. But just as the fear of German reprisals in 1939 led to restraint, the fear of a total war now leads to political passivity in recognizing our actual involvement.

The Dangerous Illusion of Peace

History teaches us that a Phoney War rarely lasts long. The silence is often the calm before the storm. In 1940, the Allies thought they still had time, that they would be ready for an attack in 1941 or 1942. The reality was that Hitler struck in the Netherlands in May 1940, and the West was completely surprised. Are we running the same risk now? While we maintain the rhetoric of ‘not at war’, it really is time to face the reality:

The war is already here. We see the victims every day in our practice. The war has infiltrated our societies through trauma, fear, and uncertainty.
We are a party. The massive material support makes us inextricably linked to the outcome of the conflict.
The silence can be deceptive. The hybrid attacks and the opponent’s economic mobilization show that the war is already in full swing elsewhere, awaiting the ‘Westfeldzug’ (Western Campaign) of today.

It’s terrifying, this echo from the past. We must ask ourselves if we are clinging too much to the illusion of peace and non-involvement. It is crucial that we recognize the reality of the Phoney War. Not only on the battlefield, but also in the consultation rooms of Europe. Only then can we properly prepare for what is to come, and above all: avoid the historical pitfalls of both ignoring the threat and creating a humiliating peace.

The war has already begun; it just hasn’t been given the ‘hot’ label yet. But the victims are here, and we are treating their wounds. Greetings from Schwerin.

Do we find it worrying what we see happening around us? Yes. Do we personally worry about it? No: